Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?

$206.68 Band

Dec 31, 2026

Marktüberblick

Markteinführungstermine:

Marktzeitraum: Ab dem Veröffentlichungsdatum bis July 23, 2026, at 2:52 PM UTC
Marktschluss: December 31, 2026, at 5:00 PM UTC
Frist für die Entscheidung: Die Entscheidung wird nach Börsenschluss getroffen oder früher, falls das Ergebnis bereits zuvor feststeht.

Regeln

Der Token muss aktiv und öffentlich übertragbar sowie handelbar sein. Ankündigungen allein reichen nicht aus. Stable sorgte kürzlich für Aufsehen, als das Unternehmen im Vorfeld seiner Token-Einführung Einlagen in Höhe von 1 Milliarde US-Dollar sichern konnte. Der Gründer und CEO von Stable, Paul Faecks, erklärte gegenüber Decrypt, dass die Stablecoin-Blockchain ihr Mainnet bis „Ende des Jahres“ starten werde. Wird das Mainnet bis Ende des Jahres starten?

Marktkontext

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following: - The upgrade must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline. Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, or activation on testnets or alternative networks do not qualify on their own. - The upgrade must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions on the Bitcoin mainnet. The scheme must be intended to provide meaningful resistance against quantum attacks on transaction signing (e.g., attacks against ECDSA or successor schemes). Purely theoretical proposals, wallet-level changes, off-chain solutions, layer-2 systems, or other non-consensus-layer mitigations do not qualify. - The upgrade must make such quantum-resistant transaction types valid under Bitcoin consensus rules and generally available for use on the Bitcoin mainnet, even if their use is optional or not yet widely adopted. “Activated” means the upgrade has reached the point at which its rules are enforced on Bitcoin mainnet blocks under consensus rules, following any required activation thresholds or lock-in periods. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.