Wird ein chinesisches Unternehmen bis zum 31. Dezember ein Top ___ KI-Modell haben?
$17,103.65 Band
Dec 31, 2026
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Marktüberblick
Markteinführungstermine:
- Marktzeitraum: Ab dem Veröffentlichungsdatum bis July 23, 2026, at 2:50 PM UTC
- Marktschluss: December 31, 2026, at 12:00 AM UTC
- Frist für die Entscheidung: Die Entscheidung wird nach Börsenschluss getroffen oder früher, falls das Ergebnis bereits zuvor feststeht.
Marktkontext
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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Zeitleiste
Markt veröffentlichtJul 23, 2026, 5:50 pm GMT+03:00
Der Markt schließtErst wenn ein Ergebnis feststeht.
BeschlussDas Ergebnis wird vom Team innerhalb von 24 Stunden nach seinem Eintreten validiert.
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