US recession by end of 2026?

$112,846.05 Vol.

Jan 31, 2027

Aperçu du marché

Dates de lancement :

Période de commercialisation : à compter de la date de publication jusqu’au July 23, 2026, at 2:51 PM UTC
Clôture du marché : January 31, 2027, at 12:00 AM UTC
Date limite de résolution : la résolution sera déterminée après la clôture du marché, ou plus tôt si le résultat est atteint

Règles

Le token doit être activement et publiquement transférable et négociable. Les simples annonces ne suffisent pas. Stable a récemment fait parler d’elle en obtenant 1 milliard de dollars de dépôts avant même le lancement de son token. Le fondateur et PDG de Stable, Paul Faecks, a déclaré à Decrypt que la blockchain de ce stablecoin lancerait son réseau principal d’ici « la fin de l’année ». Le réseau principal sera-t-il lancé d’ici la fin de l’année ?

Contexte du marché

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product