Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

$9,797.53 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

#1098%

#530%

#328%

#111%

市場の概要

市場公開日：

販売期間：公開日から～ July 23, 2026, at 2:50 PM UTC
市場終了： December 31, 2026, at 12:00 AM UTC
決着期限：決着は市場終了後に決定されますが、結果が確定した場合はそれより早く決着することがあります。

ルール

トークンは、積極的にかつ公に譲渡・取引可能でなければなりません。発表のみでは要件を満たしません。Stableは最近、トークン発売に先立ち10億ドルの預金を確保したことで注目を集めました。Stableの創業者兼CEOであるポール・フェックス氏は、Decryptに対し、同社のステーブルコイン・ブロックチェーンが「年末」までにメインネットを立ち上げる予定であると語りました。果たしてメインネットは年末までに立ち上がるのでしょうか？

市場の背景

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.