US recession by end of 2026?

$112,846.05 Vol.

Jan 31, 2027

Visão geral do mercado

Datas de lançamento:

Período de comercialização: A partir da data de publicação até July 23, 2026, at 2:51 PM UTC
Fechamento do mercado: January 31, 2027, at 12:00 AM UTC
Prazo para resolução: A resolução será determinada após o fechamento do mercado, ou antes disso, caso o resultado seja alcançado

Regras

O token deve ser ativamente e publicamente transferível e negociável. Apenas anúncios não são suficientes para atender a esse requisito. A Stable chamou a atenção recentemente ao garantir US$ 1 bilhão em depósitos antes do lançamento de seu token. O fundador e CEO da Stable, Paul Faecks, disse à Decrypt que a blockchain da stablecoin lançará sua mainnet até o “final do ano”. A mainnet será lançada até o final do ano?

Contexto de mercado

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product