Fed rate hike by...?

$185,191.85 Vol.

Dec 9, 2026

October Meeting41%

September Meeting27%

Market overview

Market dates:

Market Period: From the publication date through July 23, 2026, at 2:48 PM UTC
Market Closing: December 9, 2026, at 12:00 AM UTC
Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached

Market Context

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.