How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

$7,463.60 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

1 (25 bps)41%

0 (0 bps)30%

2 (50 bps)20%

3 (75 bps)8%

Market overview

Market dates:

Market Period: From the publication date through July 23, 2026, at 2:50 PM UTC
Market Closing: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC
Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached

Rules

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. Stable recently raised eyebrows when it secured $1 billion in deposits ahead of its token launch. Stable founder and CEO, Paul Faecks, told Decrypt that the stablecoin blockchain will launch its mainnet by “late year.” Will mainnet launch by the end of year?

Market Context

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.