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Israel closes its airspace by...?

$2,093,314.90 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 3010%
August 313%

Market overview

Market dates:


  • Market Period: From the publication date through July 23, 2026, at 2:46 PM UTC
  • Market Closing: September 30, 2026, at 12:00 AM UTC
  • Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached

Market Context

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Timeline

Market publishedJul 23, 2026, 5:46 pm GMT+03:00
Market closesOnly when an outcome is reached.
ResolutionThe outcome will be validated by the team within 24 hours of its occurrence.

Activity