Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

$10,778.28 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026

152015%

15305%

15405%

15501%

Market overview

Market dates:

Market Period: From the publication date through July 23, 2026, at 2:51 PM UTC
Market Closing: September 30, 2026, at 12:00 AM UTC
Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached

Market Context

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".