US recession by end of 2026?

$112,846.05 Vol.

Jan 31, 2027

市場の概要

市場公開日：

販売期間：公開日から～ July 23, 2026, at 2:51 PM UTC
市場終了： January 31, 2027, at 12:00 AM UTC
決着期限：決着は市場終了後に決定されますが、結果が確定した場合はそれより早く決着することがあります。

ルール

トークンは、積極的にかつ公に譲渡・取引可能でなければなりません。発表のみでは要件を満たしません。Stableは最近、トークン発売に先立ち10億ドルの預金を確保したことで注目を集めました。Stableの創業者兼CEOであるポール・フェックス氏は、Decryptに対し、同社のステーブルコイン・ブロックチェーンが「年末」までにメインネットを立ち上げる予定であると語りました。果たしてメインネットは年末までに立ち上がるのでしょうか？

市場の背景

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product