How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

$7,463.60 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

1 (25 bps)41%

0 (0 bps)30%

2 (50 bps)20%

3 (75 bps)8%

Panorâmica do mercado

Datas de lançamento no mercado:

Período de comercialização: A partir da data de publicação até July 23, 2026, at 2:50 PM UTC
Encerramento do mercado: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC
Prazo para a resolução: A resolução será determinada após o fecho do mercado, ou antes, caso se chegue a um resultado

Regras

O token deve ser ativamente e publicamente transferível e negociável. Os meros anúncios não são suficientes. A Stable suscitou recentemente alguma surpresa ao angariar mil milhões de dólares em depósitos antes do lançamento do seu token. O fundador e CEO da Stable, Paul Faecks, afirmou à Decrypt que a blockchain da stablecoin irá lançar a sua mainnet até ao «final do ano». Será que a mainnet será lançada até ao final do ano?

Contexto de mercado

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.