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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

2026年有1百万吨流星撞击？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft officially releases Project Helix by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be acknowledged to be part of Project Helix and be recognized as a major Xbox console, similar to the Xbox Series X or Xbox One. A new Xbox console not acknowledged by Microsoft as being part of Project Helix will not qualify.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Microsoft. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 31, 2026

May 31, 2027

When will Project Helix be released?

Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application

The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs

The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form

If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.

Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

FDA今年批准Retatrutide ？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

J.D. Vance

分组项标题：马科·鲁比奥

罗恩·德桑蒂斯

塔克·卡尔森

唐纳德·特朗普

唐纳德·特朗普 Jr.

泰德·克鲁茨

格伦·扬金

维克·拉马斯瓦米

伊万卡·特朗普

分组项标题：埃隆·马斯克

托马斯·马西

莎拉·哈卡比·桑德斯

格雷格·艾博特

罗伯特·F·肯尼迪二世

Rand Paul

分组项标题：Elise Stefanik

塔尔西·加巴德尔

布赖恩·肯普

拜伦·唐纳斯

乔什·霍利

玛乔里·泰勒·格林

金·卡戴珊

坎迪斯·欧文斯

克里斯蒂·诺姆

迈克·彭斯

分组项标题：汤姆·布雷迪

埃里克·特朗普

皮特·赫格塞斯

埃里卡·柯克

乔·肯特

分组项标题：妮基·黑利

斯蒂夫·班农

道格·伯古姆

里克·斯科特

汤姆·科顿

迈克·约翰逊

约翰·N·肯尼迪

约翰·桑恩

分组项标题：马特·盖茨

凯蒂·布里特

蒂姆·斯科特

2028年共和党总统候选人

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