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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).

Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).

Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.

Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

12月31日

10月31日

伊朗在……之前全面关闭领空？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if another official trailer for GTA VI is released by Rockstar Games or any of its official accounts, including but not limited to Rockstar's official website, YouTube channel, Twitter, or any other official social media platform between market creation and the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An "official trailer" is defined as a video clearly labelled and marketed as a trailer for the game in question. Teasers, gameplay snippets, or other promotional materials will not qualify for resolution unless explicitly marketed as an official trailer by Rockstar Games.

This market will resolve immediately if such an official trailer is released by the expiry date. If no official trailer is released by the specified date, this market will resolve to "No".

9月30日

June 15

Another GTA VI trailer released by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

耶稣基督会在2027年之前回来吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.

Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

October 31

10 月 23 日

下一款Google Gemini Pro Model由...发布？

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Anthropic

谷歌

哪家公司在2026年底拥有最好的人工智能模型？

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

哪家公司在9月底拥有最好的人工智能模型？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

苹果会在……之前发布可折叠iPhone吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

杰克·劳登

尚未选定邦德

下一个詹姆斯·邦德演员？

This is a market on whether OpenAI will release a consumer hardware product by the specified date.

2026年12月31日

2026年10月31日

OpenAI是否会在……之前推出消费类硬件产品？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.

Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

11 月 30 日

Gemini 4.0由...发布？

Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the name of the artist listed by Spotify as the top artist of 2026.

If Spotify does not release who their top artist for 2026 is by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped. 

This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.

Bad Bunny

德雷克

2026年Spotify顶级艺术家

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".