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How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

$57,580.79 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2 (50 bps)56%
3 (75 bps)28%
1 (25 bps)15%
4 (100 bps)2%

Market overview

Market dates:


  • Market Period: From the publication date through July 23, 2026, at 2:50 PM UTC
  • Market Closing: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC
  • Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached

Market Context

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Timeline

Market publishedJul 23, 2026, 5:50 pm GMT+03:00
Market closesOnly when an outcome is reached.
ResolutionThe outcome will be validated by the team within 24 hours of its occurrence.

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