Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

$16,255.47 Vol.

Jan 1, 2027

Anthropic64%

OpenAI12%

Meta9%

xAI7%

Market overview

Market dates:

market Period: From the publication date through July 23, 2026, at 2:52 PM UTC
Market closing: January 1, 2027, at 4:59 AM UTC
Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached

Market context

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.