Total
- Prediction
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
$393,810.72 Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
Market overview
Market dates:
- Market Period: From the publication date through July 23, 2026, at 2:51 PM UTC
- Market Closing: January 1, 2027, at 5:00 AM UTC
- Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached
Rules
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. Stable recently raised eyebrows when it secured $1 billion in deposits ahead of its token launch. Stable founder and CEO, Paul Faecks, told Decrypt that the stablecoin blockchain will launch its mainnet by “late year.” Will mainnet launch by the end of year?
Market Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
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Timeline
Market publishedJul 23, 2026, 5:51 pm GMT+03:00
Market closesOnly when an outcome is reached.
ResolutionThe outcome will be validated by the team within 24 hours of its occurrence.
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